All Signals Bullish — New Highs, New Leadership, and a New Tool
May 2026 | Monthly Commentary
The Big Picture
The S&P 500 is trading at new all-time highs, sitting roughly 8% above its 200-day moving average. All three of the trend signals we track are positive — the long-term Red Line, the intermediate momentum trend, and broad market participation. Semiconductors have emerged as the clear leadership group, with memory and chip names driving the latest leg higher. The VIX has settled below 18 and the 10-Year yield is steady around 4.4%. The market has gained nearly 10% over the past month — an extraordinary move that puts us in breakout territory.Key Takeaway: All trend signals are positive. The S&P 500 is at new all-time highs. Semiconductors are leading. And we’ve launched a new Market Monitor on our website — a daily view of the signals and indicators we follow.
Introducing the Market Monitor
We’ve launched a new research tool on our website — and it’s live right now. The Market Monitor is a daily view of the trend signals and market indicators we follow. It includes a weekly commentary section where we break down what we’re watching and why. How to get there:- Go to MomentumWealthPlanning.com
- Click on the Research tab
- Click Market Monitor
Save the site to your favorites for easy access. You’ll see indicators updating daily, a weekly market commentary, and a section called “What We’re Watching” — where we flag anything on the horizon, whether it’s the VIX, interest rates, or something else worth paying attention to.
There’s also a “Have a Question?” form at the bottom where you can send a question directly to our team.
The Red Line
The Red Line — based on the 200-day moving average — is positive. There was a brief dip below the line in April, but the market has since recovered and is showing real separation to the upside. Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are trading well above their 200-day averages.
Momentum Trend
The intermediate-term momentum trend — the 21 EMA crossing above the 50 SMA — is also positive. Both the S&P and NASDAQ are showing strong separation between the moving averages, which historically suggests a healthy uptrend. All three of the trend signals we track are currently aligned to the upside.
M5 Momentum Rankings — May
The M5 is a momentum ranking model that scores and ranks stocks monthly based on risk-adjusted returns across multiple time horizons. Here are the top five names for May:
Rotated out: Exxon (XOM), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Walmart (WMT) — more defensive names that ranked well while growth was under pressure. As the growth trade has reasserted itself, these names have dropped in the momentum rankings.
Rotated in: Intel (INTC), AMD (AMD), Caterpillar (CAT) — reflecting a shift in momentum toward semiconductors and infrastructure.
Google and Micron have maintained their top-5 ranking for several consecutive months, continuing to show strong risk-adjusted momentum.
Stock Highlights
Google (GOOG) — The trend remains strong. Recent earnings came in well above expectations — the gap-up visible on the chart reflects the market’s reaction. The price trend and fundamentals appear well aligned.
Micron (MU) — Demand for memory continues to be strong, driven by AI infrastructure buildout. Micron remains one of the highest-ranked names in the momentum model and continues to trend well.
Intel (INTC) — New to the top 5 this month. Intel posted strong earnings with a notable gap-up on the report. The compute bottleneck continues to benefit semiconductor manufacturers broadly, and Intel’s trend has turned decisively higher.
AMD (AMD) — Similar to Intel — earnings have come in ahead of expectations and the trend looks favorable. The semiconductor theme continues to broaden beyond just a few names.
Caterpillar (CAT) — An interesting addition. While the rest of the top 5 is technology-focused, Caterpillar provides industrial diversification. Between the data center buildout, global reconstruction activity, and broad construction demand, Caterpillar has been a meaningful beneficiary. The trend is strong and the momentum ranking supports its inclusion.
The Bottom Line
All three trend signals are positive. Momentum is broad. The M5 model has rotated into growth and infrastructure names. Based on the data, market conditions appear favorable. Check out the new Market Monitor on our website for daily updates on the signals and indicators we follow.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the M5 momentum model?
The M5 is a quantitative model that scores and ranks stocks based on risk-adjusted momentum across multiple time horizons. Each month, it identifies the top-ranked names from a broad universe of U.S. stocks. It is a systematic, rules-based process — not a discretionary stock pick.
What does “above the Red Line” mean?
The Red Line refers to the 200-day simple moving average of the S&P 500. When the index is trading above this level, the long-term trend is considered bullish. When it drops below, it signals that the trend may be shifting. Almost every major bear market in modern history has been preceded by a sustained break below the 200-day average.
What is the momentum trend signal?
The momentum trend uses the relationship between the 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). When the 21 EMA is above the 50 SMA, intermediate-term momentum is considered positive. When it crosses below, momentum may be weakening. It serves as a faster-moving complement to the longer-term Red Line signal.
What is the Market Monitor?
The Market Monitor is a free tool on our website that displays the trend signals and market indicators we follow, updated daily. It includes a weekly commentary and a “What We’re Watching” section. You can access it at MomentumWealthPlanning.com under the Research tab.
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All opinions expressed are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Momentum Wealth Planning, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Momentum Wealth Planning does not provide tax or legal advice. To determine which investments may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The securities identified and described do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold, or recommended for client accounts. The reader should not assume that an investment in the securities identified was or will be profitable.