Momentum Wealth Planning

+1 (919) 323-4219 Fee-Only Fiduciary · Estero, FL
Investment Strategy

Tactical Momentum Strategy

Market downturns can disrupt retirement plans and long-term goals. Our strategy seeks to help reduce significant drawdowns during recessions while aiming to stay positioned for growth in favorable markets.

The market has historically rewarded long-term investors. But between the start and the finish, significant declines have erased years of progress — sometimes taking over a decade to recover. We believe a disciplined approach to risk management can seek to reduce the impact of these downturns.

What It Is

Most portfolios pick a lane. Ours moves.

Tactical
tac·ti·caladjective

of or relating to a maneuver or plan of action designed as an expedient toward gaining a desired end or temporary advantage.

Momentum
mo·men·tumnoun

the strength or force gained by motion — or by a trend that continues to build.

All defenseAll offense

It’s built from two pieces that let the portfolio shift with the market — Tactical attempting to limit losses when trends turn down, Momentum pursuing growth when they turn up. Here’s each piece.

What’s At Stake

Everyone remembers these. Few are ready for the next one.

You’ve probably seen charts like these — maybe you lived through them. Look at how far each one fell, and how long it stayed down. Then consider the one thing a chart like this leaves out.

2000–2002

Dot-Com Crash

6008001,0001,2001,4001,600 200020012002
1,527Peak · Mar 2000
777Low · Oct 2002
−49%Peak-to-trough

After the tech run-up, the S&P 500 peaked in March 2000 and slid for two and a half years, losing nearly half its value by October 2002. From that low, it took about five years just to get back to even.

2007–2009

Financial Crisis

6008001,0001,2001,4001,600 200720082009
1,565Peak · Oct 2007
677Low · Mar 2009
−57%Peak-to-trough

The S&P 500 topped out in October 2007. As the housing and credit crisis spread, it fell 57% into March 2009 — its deepest decline since the Great Depression. Getting back to even took roughly four years.

What the charts don’t show

A 50% loss while you’re still working is a setback — you have years to make it back. The same loss once you’re retired is different in kind. Every withdrawal you take during the decline sells shares at the lows to cover your expenses, turning a temporary drop into permanent damage. Advisors call it sequence-of-returns risk. For anyone living off their portfolio, it’s the difference between a scary year and a changed retirement.

Two declines of more than 45% in the last 25 years — and there will probably be another. You just can’t know when.

When the next one comes, is your portfolio built to respond — or just to ride it down?

S&P 500 index, monthly closes · peak, trough and percentage decline are actual

Piece One · Tactical

Tactical: built to reduce risk in the next recession, downturn, or crisis.

The tactical piece is risk management. When the market’s trend turns down, the strategy shifts toward defense — *using protective puts, covered calls, and cash — in an attempt to avoid the full force of a major decline. Not by predicting the top, but by responding when the trend breaks.

And they aren’t rare — four declines of 25% or more since 2000

Dot-Com Crash2000–2002
−49%~5 yrs to recover
Financial Crisis2007–2009
−57%~4 yrs to recover
COVID Crash2020
−34%~6 months
2022 Bear2022
−25%~2 yrs to recover

S&P 500, peak-to-trough.

Why a deep loss is so hard to recover from

−20%
+25%
−50%
+100%
−80%
+400%
Gain required just to get back to even.

A 50% loss needs a 100% gain just to break even — and if you’re drawing income through it, the damage compounds. That’s what tactical defense attempts to limit.

Piece Two · Momentum

Momentum: own what’s winning.

The momentum piece is how we pursue growth — and it isn’t stock-picking on instinct. It’s driven by the M10 strategy, our own rules-based algorithm that evaluates the market every trading day, ranks it by risk-adjusted momentum, and concentrates the portfolio in the names showing the strongest, most durable trends.

M10 The Momentum Engine — rules-based, run daily
01

Momentum Analysis

500+ stocks evaluated every trading day through a systematic momentum model that blends several return horizons and adjusts each for volatility.

02

Ranked & Weighted

Every name earns a composite momentum score, then is weighted toward the stability that tends to come with larger, established companies.

03

Concentrated Selection

The highest-conviction names form the momentum portfolio — reconstituted monthly as market leadership rotates.

In plain terms: M10 decides what the growth side of your portfolio owns — so a hunch, a headline, or a bad week never does.

Put Them Together

Two pieces. One portfolio.

Momentum reaches for growth while the trend is healthy. Tactical steps in to defend when it turns. You stay invested for the long run — with a plan for the drops along the way.

TacticalBuilt for defense MomentumBuilt for growth

The honest tradeoff: with defense built in, a portfolio can trail a runaway bull market. We think that’s a fair price for not riding the next crash to the bottom.

The Next Step

See whether it fits your goals.

A conversation, not a commitment — no pressure, no obligation. We’ll walk through how Tactical Momentum would apply to your situation.

This material is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Tactical Momentum involves risk, including the possible loss of principal, and there is no assurance any strategy will achieve its objectives or limit losses. *Options strategies such as protective puts and covered calls carry their own risks and costs, including premiums paid and capped upside, and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading options, investors should review the options disclosure document, Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. A defended portfolio may underperform broad market indexes, particularly in strong rising markets. The momentum sleeve is concentrated and may be more volatile than a diversified portfolio. Allocations vary by client. Drawdown figures refer to S&P 500 index price declines and are shown for illustration; they are not a forecast or the performance of any Momentum Wealth Planning strategy. Past performance does not guarantee future results.